Lets discuss about the current status of Russia-Ukraine war, its potential global impact, and what Russia has achieved and what its ultimate target is.
February 24, 2023, marked the one-year anniversary of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the news coming from war are not good. The conflict began in 2014 when Russia advanced to Crimea and occupied it from Russia. Crimea is a region that belong to Ukraine for decades. The annexation of Crimea aired up many separatist movements in eastern Ukraine, where Russian back them and provide them financial support. These conflicts has escalated into a full-scale Ukraine Russia war in February 2022. That escalation results in the death of thousands of innocent people and displacement of millions.
The roots of the Russia-Ukraine conflict can go back to the Soviet era, when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union. Ukraine gained independence in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but its relation with Russia remained strong, particularly in the eastern regions of the country. But Ukraine's efforts to make close relationship with EU and NATO fire up the tension with Russia.
Many separatist movements in eastern Ukraine become active as soon as Ukraine try to make strong ties with West. Russia has denied its involvement in these separatist movements, but later evidence suggests that Russian forces have provided military and financial support to the separatists. Since the war started both sides accusing each other of human rights voilations and war crimes.
It seems that Russia has more than one objective in the current scenario. One of the primary objectives is to stop Ukraine from aligning with the West as it put in danger the Russian interest in the Region. On the other side, it also believe that Russia still consider Ukraine as its own territory and it has desire to make it part of Russia again.
Russia's military advancement in Ukraine is seems to be part of a strategy to challenge the international order and re-claim its influence in the region. By destabilizing Ukraine through separatist movements, Russia undermine the legitimacy of democratic Ukraine and promote a pro-Russian narrative. Russia's involvement in Syria and Middle East also suggest the same.
The events before and after the war suggest that Russia wants to increase its influence over Ukraine and prevent it from aligning with the West. Russia always sought to prevent Ukraine from joining these organizations and to maintain its own dominant position in the region.
Russia has broader geographical and political objectives in Ukraine, such as challenging the international order. The war in Ukraine is just one part of Russia’s larger strategy to achieve its objectives.
Since the war began, Russia has made several military gains in eastern Ukraine. Russian has occupied several regions of Eastern Ukraine including Donetsk and Luhansk by backing separatists. Russian forces are continuously providing weapons and other military equipment to the separatists that allow them to hold their ground against Ukrainian forces.
The successful completion of Russia plan to export its natural gas to Germany through Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is also achieve during this war. This pipeline will enable Russia to export natural gas to Germany, bypassing Ukraine. Russia also reduce its dependence on Ukraine by seizing its eastern areas. Its look like Russia dream to weaken Ukraine’s economy is fulfilled and also increase its dominance over Ukraine.
In the whole process it is now proven that Russia has some economic and energy objectives behind this escalation. In the broader view, these outcomes are more significant for Russia than other results. Russia destroy the whole the geopolitical edge of Ukraine and West over its economy.
After the annexation of Crimea, the main target of Russia is Odesa, because this whole area is full of Natural resources. The control of Odesa will increase the dependence of Europe for Natural Gas and Oil over Russia. Moreover, Russia will take the complete control of this region economy and Russia's control on these resources provide economic advantage over Ukraine and the region as a whole.
The conflict in Ukraine has had a devastating impact on the country and its economy. The conflict become main reason behind the increase in oil, gas and wheat prices all over the world. As we know, Ukraine is the 5th Largest exporter of Wheat and many countries in Africa suffer during this conflict because they have dependence on Ukraine to fulfill needs. So it is not wrong to say that this conflict affect the global economy.
The conflict in Ukraine shows no signs of ending, and the humanitarian situation in the region especially in Ukraine continues to be worsen. Millions of people so far migrated from war affected areas. The international community has called for a peaceful resolution of the conflict, but so far, diplomatic efforts have been unsuccessful. As long as Russia continues to back separatist forces and supply them with weapons and military equipment, the conflict is likely to continue.
For Ukraine, the war has been a major setback, both economically and politically. The country has lost significant territory and the entire major infrastructure include roads, bridges, hospitals, buildings and schools will need to be re-build again. Moreover, the war has undermined Ukraine's efforts to build a stronger, more prosperous democracy.
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has the devastating impact on both countries. Although, Russia has achieved some military targets and strategic objectives but the human cost of the war in Ukraine cannot be denied. The international community must continue to work towards a peaceful solution of this conflict, and Russia geopolitical actions in the region are need to be addressed on international forums.
